There are many in both camps of the inflation-deflation battle.
Knowing how this ends is important because of the long-run investment
implications. I believe that the government, unequivocably, is
attempting to engineer inflation. But knowing what they are aiming at is
not enough. Their track record in all areas is quite abysmal, rivaling
the Keystone Cops. Final results are often 180 degrees from intended.
I believe it is still too early to make a final judgment regarding
inflation or deflation. Calls made now are only predictions. As
Rosenberg points out, some prices are declining. That, however, is a symptom of deflation rather than deflation itself. Other prices are increasing (symptom
of inflation), financial assets being the most obvious . The Fed is
flooding the system with liquidity (inflation), while credit implodes
(deflation). In the battle between Fed liquidity injections and market
credit contraction, the Fed is currently behind. Whether the final
score reflects that or not is still moot.
Apparent deflation at this point is not necessarily inconsistent with
future deflation or inflation. An unrecognized adjustment downward in
the standard of living is often mistaken for deflation. I think a
lowered standard of living for this country is inevitable. My guess is
that inflation, some time in the future, is also.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
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